1984

           Inthecentresofcivilizationwarmeansnomorethanacontinuousshortageofconsumptiongoods,andtheoccasionalcrashofarocketbombwhichmaycauseafewscoresofdeaths. Warhasinfactchangeditscharacter. Moreexactly,thereasonsforwhichwariswagedhavechangedintheirorderofimportance. Motiveswhichwerealreadypresenttosomesmallextentinthegreatwarsoftheearlytwentiethcenturyhavenowbecomedominantandareconsciouslyrecognizedandactedupon. 

           Tounderstandthenatureofthepresentwar—forinspiteoftheregroupingwhichoccurseveryfewyears,itisalwaysthesamewar—onemustrealizeinthefirstplacethatitisimpossibleforittobedecisive. Noneofthethreesuper-statescouldbedefinitivelyconqueredevenbytheothertwoincombination. Theyaretooevenlymatched,andtheirnaturaldefencesaretooformidable. Eurasiaisprotectedbyitsvastlandspaces,OceaniabythewidthoftheAtlanticandthePacific,Eastasiabythefecundityandindustriousnessofitsinhabitants. Secondly,thereisnolonger,inamaterialsense,anythingtofightabout. Withtheestablishmentofself-containedeconomies,inwhichproductionandconsumptionaregearedtooneanother,thescrambleformarketswhichwasamaincauseofpreviouswarshascometoanend, whilethecompetitionforrawmaterialsisnolongeramatteroflifeanddeath. Inanycaseeachofthethreesuper-statesissovastthatitcanobtainalmostallthematerialsthatitneedswithinitsownboundaries. Insofarasthewarhasadirecteconomicpurpose,itisawarforlabourpower. Betweenthefrontiersofthesuper-states,andnotpermanentlyinthepossessionofanyofthem,thereliesaroughquadrilateralwithitscornersatTangier,Brazzaville,Darwin,andHongKong,containingwithinitaboutafifthofthepopulationoftheearth.