Стража! Стража!

           "Don’tbedaft,Sergeant,"hesaid."No-oneeversawathousand-to-onechancecomeup.Theoddsagainstitare-"hislipsmoved-"millionstoone.""Yeah.Millions,"agreedNobby."Soit’donlyworkifit’syouractualmillion-to-onechance,"saidthesergeant."Isupposethat’sright,"saidNobby."So999,943-to-one,forexample-"Colonbegan.Carrotshookhishead."Wouldn’thaveahope.No-oneeversaid,’It’sa999,943-to-onechancebutitmightjustwork.’"

           Theystaredoutacrossthecityinthesilenceofferociousmentalcalculation.

           "Wecouldhavearealproblemhere,"saidColoneventually.

           Carrotstartedtoscribblefuriously.Whenquestioned,heexplainedatlengthabouthowyoufoundthesurfaceareaofadragonandthentriedtoestimatethechancesofanarrowhittinganyonespot."Aimed,mind,"saidSergeantColon."Iaim."Nobbycoughed.

           "Inthatcaseit’sgottobealotlessthanamillion-to-onechance,"saidCarrot."Itcouldbeahundred-to-one.Ifthedragon’sflyingslowlyandit’sabigspot,itcouldbepracticallyacertainty."Colon’slipsshapedthemselvesaroundthephrase,

           It’sacertaintybutitmightjustwork.Heshookhishead."Nah,"hesaid.

           "Sowhatwe’vegottodo,then,"saidNobbyslowly,"isadjusttheodds..."

           Nowtherewasashallowholeinthemortarnearthemiddlebar.Itwasn’tmuch,Vimesknew,butitwasastart.

           "Youdon’trequireassistance,byanychance?"saidthePatrician.

           "No."

           "Asyouwish."