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           Hestuckdownhisauthorities,too,andhadanoddtrickofgivingthemallanumericalvalueandthenstrikingabalance,whichstoodforthereliabilityofeachstageintheyarn.Thefournameshehadprintedwereauthorities,andtherewasaman,Ducrosne,whogotfiveoutofapossiblefive;andanotherfellow,Ammersfoort,whogotthree.Thebarebonesofthetalewereallthatwasinthebook—these,andonequeerphrasewhichoccurredhalfadozentimesinsidebrackets.(“Thirty-ninesteps”)wasthephrase;andatitslasttimeofuseitran—(“Thirty-ninesteps,Icountedthem—hightide10.17p.m.”).Icouldmakenothingofthat.

           ThefirstthingIlearnedwasthatitwasnoquestionofpreventingawar.Thatwascoming,assureasChristmas:hadbeenarranged,saidScudder,eversinceFebruary1912.Karolideswasgoingtobetheoccasion.Hewasbookedallright,andwastohandinhischecksonJune14th,twoweeksandfourdaysfromthatMaymorning.IgatheredfromScudder’snotesthatnothingonearthcouldpreventthat.HistalkofEpiroteguardsthatwouldskintheirowngrandmotherswasallbilly-o.

           ThesecondthingwasthatthiswarwasgoingtocomeasamightysurprisetoBritain.Karolides’deathwouldsettheBalkansbytheears,andthenViennawouldchipinwithanultimatum.Russiawouldn’tlikethat,andtherewouldbehighwords.ButBerlinwouldplaythepeacemaker,andpouroilonthewaters,tillsuddenlyshewouldfindagoodcauseforaquarrel,pickitup,andinfivehoursletflyatus.